What’s Ahead for 5G Non-Terrestrial Networks?

Chris Pearson, July 2023 – 

Since our trade association started in 2002 as 3G Americas, we’ve been focused on building a community of supporters for wireless cellular technology in the Americas. We’re proud to release our “Update on 5G Non-Terrestrial Networks,” which is a great snapshot of the progress and future direction on satellite and other non-terrestrial technologies as they integrate with today’s wireless cellular networks. This update builds on our very popular February 2022 white paper, “5G and Non-Terrestrial Networks”.

For a trade association that began by working with Earth-bound “terrestrial” network operators with radios on cell towers, our relationship with the sky-based telecom ecosystem has always been an interesting one. For decades, the promise of ubiquitous wireless coverage without any coverage gaps has always tantalized the marketplace. While satellite has always been able to provide good coverage from the skies above, the cost and complexity of satellite launches, integration of networks and interoperability of handheld devices have always been challenges to its potential. In 2023, there are several broadband and satellite providers serving the market, including but not limited to the following:

Major Broadband and satellite providers 2023 

But as the cost of satellite launches seems to have gone down, satellite operators are increasingly seeing the benefit of connecting with terrestrial 5G networks to access the massive scale that wireless cellular communications can bring. Indeed, there are now over 703 ‘Long-Term Evolution’ (LTE) or ‘4G LTE’ networks serving a staggering 7.86 billion connections, according to data from Omdia – that’s nearly one LTE connection for every person on the planet. Even more importantly, there are now 1.2 billion 5G connections around the world, a number which we expect to reach 6.8 billion in 2027, only four years away.

In 2022, the telecommunications industry began to see a flurry of several high-profile partnerships (shown below) which highlighted the possible recognition of a simple fact: satellite operators could see the benefit of access to a global wireless marketplace that 5G standards bring to the table, and terrestrial network operators possibly see the benefit of ubiquitous coverage without gaps, even in the most remote parts of the planet. Several of these announcements related to ‘direct-to-cell’ (D2C) communications, where NTN operators would be able to connect their customers directly to 5G networks to offer emergency and messaging services, eliminating the need for a bulky and satellite phone. 

It’s a match made between Earth and the skies above.

Major IoT/D2C partnerships 2023 

Analog 1G systems only allowed for voice communications back when paging systems were popular for messaging.  In those early days of paging systems, a lot of our communications relied on short messages, which did not require much data throughput.  

As wireless cellular communications grew, the greater spectrum bandwidths and improved management of network latencies have allowed for many more services to be offered. From 2G to 5G, we slowly went from texting to voice (low throughput / stringent network latency) to video (high throughput / less stringent network latency) to streaming video (high throughput / stringent latency). Indeed, 5G networks standards theoretically can offer up to 10 Gbps downloads, sub 10 millisecond network latencies, and management of up to a million devices per square kilometer. It is those last two capabilities, that offer both NTN operators and 5G companies an even grander target: the Internet of Things (IoT).

Today, there are several dedicated NTN operators that serve the IoT and Direct-to-Cell market. This list is not exhaustive of every possible Iot/D2C but does highlight many in this ecosystem. They include:

Major NTN IoT/D2C service providers 2023 

NTN operators are witnessing the strength of the 5G New Radio standard – its massive adoption and continuing technology evolution. Indeed, 3GPP Release 17 has a lot of support for new services, technologies, and spectrum for NTN deployments. They include improvements for time and frequency synchronization, enhancements for HARQ (Hybrid Automatic Repeat Request) and RACH (Random Access Channel), mobility support, new NTN spectrum bands, NTN-specific system information blocks (SIB).

Already, downlink speeds in the tens of Mbps may enable services beyond IoT, text or emergency calls, such as video calling. Indeed, a recent success of a satellite-to-4G LTE network test that connected an off-the-shelf mobile device via satellite shows how quickly operators are adopting these technologies. With additional tests underway for 5G networks, we can expect more ongoing enhancements to 5G NTN design in Rel-18, as well as the US Federal Communications Commission’s (FCC) Space Bureau approving new rules on spectrum sharing and coordination among space-based operators.

For over twenty years, the dream of worldwide seamless wireless connectivity on mobile devices has been a sort of Holy Grail for our industry. We are getting closer each day towards achieving this. While the physics of wireless may never allow us to achieve full 100% coverage everywhere, the industry key stakeholders are working hard to bring the world together under a wonderful umbrella of connectivity. Cheers to what the future will bring.

-Chris